The Blast - Wed, Oct 22, 2025

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The Blast | Texas Tribune
October 22, 2025

By Renzo Downey and The Texas Tribune Politics Team

9 days until early voting ends
13 days until the November election
17 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing period begins
47 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing deadline

IN TODAY’S BLAST

  • Crockett’s bid hinges on potential new voters

  • How Crockett could stand out

  • Cuellar burns through his Q3 earnings

  • Roy targets judge in Brett Kavanaugh plot case

CROCKETT’S BID HINGES ON POTENTIAL NEW VOTERS

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett is inches closer to launching a race for the U.S. Senate.

In an interview with Sirius XM host Lurie Daniel Favors, the Dallas Democrat said she would strongly consider entering the race if she finds that she can turn out enough new voters to win in November. Although that interview has gotten a lot of media play today, it’s only a little bit more specific than what she said back in August.

Polls show state Rep. James Talarico of Austin and former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas in a tight race for the Democratic nomination. However, if Crockett were to enter the race, she would immediately become the frontrunner, in large part thanks to her name recognition.

In Crockett’s latest interview, she expressed confidence that she would win the primary, based on existing polling that asks about her potential campaign. Her main question is whether she can “expand the electorate,” turning out new voters à la Barack Obama — and Donald Trump.

“If we can expand the electorate, then I will strongly be considering hopping in this Senate race,” Crockett said.

Back in August, she largely dismissed the possibility, telling WFAA’s Jason Whitely that it would take a poll showing that she was competitive in the general election to make her consider a run.

In the Sirius XM interview, Crockett said she will soon start testing whether she can expand the electorate. It’s that admission that she is proactively scouting the race that’s the biggest change.

Crockett discounted traditional polling, arguing that it ignores potential voters that otherwise wouldn’t turn out. She said she would be exploring crosstabs to see which new segments of voters her campaign could turn out.

Her answer was also unsolicited. Favors asked her which congressional seat she would run for, to which Crockett called a Senate campaign her “other option.” That’s unlike the Whitely interview, where he had to pry out her comment in a follow-up question.

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HOW CROCKETT COULD STAND OUT

One big factor in the Senate race is fundraising. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s campaign operation raised $3.4 million in the third quarter and has over $10 million on hand, although not all of it can be spent on the Senate race. There are also groups like the Senate Leadership Fund that would come to Cornyn’s aid.

Whether matched up against Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton or U.S. Sen. Wesley Hunt of Houston, strong fundraising is a must for the Democratic nominee.

Crockett is proving herself on that front. She is the No. 5 fundraiser this year among House members and No. 1 in the Texas delegation, according to Federal Election Commission data. Her $6.6 million raised beats Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, and his $6 million raised. She trails Rep. Ro Khanna, D-California, who has raised $7.9 million, and you can probably guess the top three.

Talarico raised $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his campaign while Allred raised $4.1 million in three months. Crockett’s $2.7 million this quarter trailed both but would tick up if she launched a statewide bid.

Crockett’s $6.6 million in 2025 is nearly double what she raised in the entire 2024 cycle. That’s thanks in part to her viral moments and national reach from stirring controversy in Republican-led congressional committees or on the stump — like when she called Gov. Greg Abbott “Hot Wheels.”

That energy would contrast sharply with Allred and Talarico, the latter of whom has been running a more wholesome, “love thy neighbor” campaign. Crockett gave listeners a taste of her potential campaign approach on the Favors show that tied her Senate musings to the recent redistricting.

“If you want to take my seat of 766,000 away, I feel like there has to be some karma in that to where I take your seat that is for 30 million away,” Crockett said.

CUELLAR BURNS THROUGH HIS Q3 EARNINGS

U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar is among House Democrats’ most vulnerable members this cycle. And his campaign fundraising has lagged behind that of his counterparts.

Cuellar, of Laredo, raised about $224,000 in the third quarter, putting him second-to-last among targeted Democrats, according to National Journal. A Politico analysis found that the average battleground Democrat had a $1.5 million war chest. Cuellar, by contrast, has about $364,000 in the bank.

Cuellar spent about $219,000 last quarter, an unusually high burn rate. The longtime Democrat is facing federal bribery charges from a 2024 indictment, and has spent much of his campaign money on legal fees. In Q3 alone, Cuellar paid $105,000 to three law firms for legal services.

Cuellar, who has survived a right-leaning district and legal troubles, may face his toughest challenge yet next cycle. Republicans redrew his district so that it would have voted for President Donald Trump by a 10-point margin in 2024, rather than the 7-point margin by which Trump carried TX-28 under the old lines. Republicans have homed in on his seat in their 2026 battleground map.

“Out of touch Henry Cuellar’s campaign is in trouble and everyone knows it,” said National Republican Campaign Committee spokesperson Reilly Richardson. “After decades of Cuellar being a self-serving obstructionist, South Texans are ready for new leadership who will put them first.”

Though Cuellar has fallen behind other Democrats, he has the advantage of time — only two Republicans have filed to run against him so far. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a Republican widely expected to challenge Cuellar, has yet to announce a run but formed an exploratory committee, which allows him to raise money.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus pointed out that Cuellar raised 10 times the haul of his leading announced Republican opponent, Jay Furman, and reported 20 times his cash on hand and none of his half a million in debt.

“Maybe if Republicans learned how to do math they’d stop embarrassing themselves trying to go after one of South Texas’ most dedicated representatives — because Congressman Cuellar has beaten them every single time. And he’s beating them again now,” Andrus told The Blast.

Cuellar’s high burn rate is on par with former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Los Indios. The Blast last week addressed similar questions about Flores’ fundraising strength in her third race against U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen. Gonzalez’s seat, like Cuellar’s, is a top target for Republicans.

— Gabby Birenbaum

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ROY TARGETS JUDGE IN BRETT KAVANAUGH PLOT CASE

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy filed articles of impeachment against a district judge in Maryland who sentenced a would-be assassin of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh to eight years in federal prison, as tensions between the judiciary and Congress mount.

Roy, an Austin Republican who is one of Congress’ most right-wing members, said the eight-year sentence was too lenient. The judge, Deborah Boardman, sentenced the defendant, Sophie Roske, for one month longer than defense attorneys recommended.

Roske went to Kavanaugh’s home while armed in 2022, but abandoned her plans and called 911 to turn herself in. Roy said Boardman was swayed by Roske’s identity as a transgender woman.

“Boardman unequivocally based this weak sentence on the attempted assassin’s ‘gender identity,’ as the attempted assassin expressed that he views himself as a woman,” Roy said. “Instead of doing what the Judiciary calls for and sentencing this man to the base 30-year sentence recommended by the Department of Justice, Judge Boardman purposefully allowed this man off easy.”

Impeachment votes against federal judges are rare and almost always related to criminal activity such as bribery, tax evasion or perjury. The last successful judicial impeachment occurred in 2010. 

But impeachment efforts have become increasingly common. In 2024, a group of 20 Democrats introduced articles against Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito over their lack of recusal in a series of cases, but they died in committee. This year, Republicans have initiated impeachment actions against numerous federal judges who have ruled against President Donald Trump, though none have received a vote in the House Judiciary Committee.

Another Texan, Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Flower Mound, introduced articles of impeachment against District Judge James Boasberg earlier this year.

Roy is running for Texas attorney general.

— Gabby Birenbaum

  • During a House GOP conference call yesterday, U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving, said the House should come back in session to pass bills, according to Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman.

  • U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, was one of 13 Republican Congress members who wrote House Speaker Mike Johnson to signal their support for reforming the Affordable Care Act tax credits after the government is reopened, while stressing that letting the tax credits lapse outright would harm their constituents.

  • A federal judge on Tuesday issued a permanent injunction against part of 2023’s House Bill 900, the “READER Act.” State Rep. Jared Patterson, the Frisco Republican who authored the bill, put out a statement lamenting the decisions but highlighting Senate Bill 412, which he said addressed the “obscenity exemption.”

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  • Gov. Greg Abbott will speak at a get-out-the-vote event in El Paso tomorrow afternoon for the constitutional amendment election.

  • TX-SEN: The Texas Association of Manufacturers, Texas Chemistry Council and Texas Homebuilders Association endorsed U.S. Sen. John Cornyn for reelection.

  • Governor: U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico endorsed fellow Austin Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa for governor.

  • TX-02: U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Humble, will host U.S. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, for a fireside chat next month at the Kevin Brady Community Center in The Woodlands. Crenshaw faces a primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, R-Conroe. Jordan, the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, could help strengthen Crenshaw’s conservative bona fides in that race.

  • TX-08: U.S. Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Flower Mound, endorsed Montgomery Republican Jessica Steinmann, executive general counsel at the America First Policy Institute, to succeed U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, R-Magnolia. Luttrell, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick have already endorsed her.

  • TX-18: State Rep. Jolanda Jones, D-Houston, and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards were quoted in this Axios entry about how Democratic candidates are critical of their party’s approach to countering Republicans. “I just think that the days of following a playbook [are over],” Axios quoted Jones. “There’s no way I’m following rules when other people aren’t.” Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee cast his special election ballot today at Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church.

  • TX-38: Harris County Commissioner Tom Ramsey endorsed Houston Republican Jon Bonck to succeed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, a Houston Republican who is challenging Cornyn. Cruz has already endorsed Bonck.

  • SD-4: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC endorsed Montgomery County District Attorney Brett Ligon to succeed Brandon Creighton, the Conroe Republican who is now chancellor-elect of the Texas Tech University System. Patrick has already endorsed Ligon.

  • HD-49: Montserrat Garibay, a former assistant deputy secretary at the Biden Department of Education and the former secretary-treasurer of the Texas AFL-CIO, announced her campaign to succeed Hinojosa, who is running for governor. Garibay’s supporters include U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, D-Austin, Austin ISD Board President Lynn Boswell — who scrapped her own state House bid — and City Council member Mike Siegel.

  • HD-96: Abbott endorsed Republican Ellen Fleischmann of Mansfield to succeed state Rep. David Cook, R-Mansfield, who is running for the Texas Senate. TLR PAC endorsed Fleischmann in August.

  • HD-98: The governor endorsed Republican Fred Tate of Colleyville to succeed retiring state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, R-Southlake. TLR PAC endorsed Tate last month. Keller Mayor Armin Mizani has been endorsed by U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne, the Republican former mayor of Irving.

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  • President Donald Trump nominated retiring state Sen. Brian Birdwell, R-Granbury, to serve as an assistant secretary of defense. Read more here.

  • The president also nominated Ryan Raybould to be the U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Texas in Dallas. Raybould previously served as chief counsel to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Cornyn and Sen. Ted Cruz recommended Raybould. “I saw firsthand how intelligent, judicious, and well-versed in the law he truly is,” Cornyn said in a statement.

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Redistricting: “California Republicans ready to play Trump card over Prop 50” by Will McCarthy of Politico

Op-ed: “How to read the 2025 election tea leaves” by Karl Rove for The Wall Street Journal

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(Oct. 22) State Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth
(Oct. 22) Joey Parr of Catalyst Advisors Group

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