The Blast - Wed, May 6, 2026

12 days until early voting begins in the primary runoffs
20 days until the primary runoffs

A new analysis commissioned by a pro-Cornyn PAC has doubled down on previous findings that Ken Paxton could imperil congressional Republicans, now warning that numerous state House seats could be at risk should the attorney general beat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in this month’s primary runoff.

The memo, shared exclusively with The Blast, says having Paxton atop the ticket would shave off 5 to 8 points down ballot compared to Cornyn’s margins. It would erase the GOP’s congressional redistricting gains and make easy holds competitive, the analysis found. At the state House level, they could lose 11 seats while another 13 would become competitive.

Under that scenario, Democrats could be in line to flip the Texas House.

“The Senate race tightens significantly. Congressional pickup opportunities close. Republican-held seats that should be safe require active defense,” the memo reads. “And the Texas House majority — which took years to build — faces exposure it would not face with Cornyn at the top of the ticket.”

The report was put together by Deep Root Analytics on behalf of the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority as the incumbent senator makes the case that nominating Paxton would be detrimental to the party. While some might write off the results due to the source, it’s worth noting that the report paints a remarkably bleak picture for Republicans in November, regardless of who is leading the ticket.

The firm factored in modeled ballot performance, turnout projections, demographic data and internal surveys to calculate the shift in support among independents, crossover Democrats, women and in the suburbs.

Congress

The new GOP congressional seats around Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, plus U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s seat, would each become a “likely Democratic hold” if Paxton is the nominee — to say nothing of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar’s seat, which the report appears to have written off as a loss.

A prior analysis from Deep Root for Texans for a Conservative Majority, covered by the Tribune’s Gabby Birenbaum, said Republicans would only flip two of those five redrawn seats, suggesting things are trending in the wrong direction. That February memo pegged Paxton’s down-ballot drag at 4 to 7 points.

In the latest report, U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne and Brandon Herrera, who hopes to succeed disgraced former U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, would also be running from behind. U.S. Reps. Jake Ellzey and Craig Goldman and nominee Trever Nehls would have competitive fights.

“Across these five races simultaneously, that is a substantial and entirely avoidable drain on resources that could otherwise be deployed offensively — in Texas and in other battleground states where the House majority will be decided,” per the memo.

The report did not analyze U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s race, which Democrats have also targeted as a potential flip.

Continued below.

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State House

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick spun up fears that Republicans could lose the Texas House last month, though Speaker Dustin Burrows refuted that the following day. However, the new report lends some credence to Patrick’s concerns.

Democrats need to flip 14 seats to take control of the Texas House, 13 to split the chamber.

Deep Root divided the House into three categories, according to its projections:

Four races would turn from Cornyn wins to Paxton losses, while seven GOP-held seats would turn from competitive races to losses, per the report. Thirteen would fall into the “Cornyn win, Paxton competitive” category.

Below, The Blast has a breakdown of the projected 2026 margins in the “Paxton loss” districts under each top-of-the-ticket scenario. For your benefit, we’re adding the 2024 margins for Trump and the GOP nominee:

“These are not close calls — they are structural flips driven entirely by what name appears at the top of the ballot,” the memo says of those four.

The “Cornyn wins, Paxton competitive” section includes some curious names, too. It’s got a few districts that’ll look familiar to those who’ve followed past Texas House elections — including Rep. Matt Morgan’s HD-26 and Rep. Caroline Harris Davila’s HD-52 — and others that would seem to require a political mega-earthquake to flip, such as Rep. Briscoe Cain’s HD-128, a Trump +38 district.

If Deep Root’s analysis is correct and the down-ballot results mirror the top of the ticket, that would mark 11 new Democratic seats under Paxton, putting them just two seats shy of breaking Republicans’ decadeslong control of the chamber.

Additionally, the group didn’t mention Reps. Angie Chen Button, Janie Lopez or Denise Villalobos, whom Democrats are targeting. Assuming those races weren’t mentioned in the analysis because they were already Cornyn losses, that would get Democrats to 14 potential flips. And that’s before factoring in the districts Deep Root classified as competitive under Paxton.

That kind of shift is not unheard of. Democrats used Beto O’Rourke’s coattails to flip 12 state House seats when he came within 3 points of ousting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018.

Still, readers should consider that this memo was prepped for a pro-Cornyn group and comes as the primary runoff spending begins to heat up. Releasing poll numbers that get donors to open their wallets is as time-honored a tradition as any.

Moreover, the analysis only appeared to categorize based on the top of the ticket. Having a down-ballot incumbent who knows how to work their district can often make a difference.

Just ask Rep. Button.

A poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs yesterday showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 3 points, suggesting the runoff could come down to a game of inches — and, with few voters still waffling, one likely decided by turnout.

The Hobby poll from the first round, fielded about a month out, had Paxton leading by 7 points. Cornyn ultimately finished with 42%, Paxton with 41% and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt with 14%.

As the Tribune’s Gabby Birenbaum and Eleanor Klibanoff noted, the poll found Hunt supporters breaking toward Paxton by 19 points. However, Cornyn polled slightly ahead in favorability among the 7% of undecided voters.

Most polls, like the January Hobby poll, had Paxton leading the primary. When Cornyn finished in first, many commentators chalked it up to the senator’s track record of turning out his voters. Cornyn ran his first statewide campaign in 1990 and boasts an undefeated record over his political career.

After his surprise second-place finish, Paxton has been much more visible during the runoff, releasing ads and hitting the campaign trail much earlier than he did in the first round.

Still, his fundraising woes have persisted. A New York Times story from Lauren McGaughy yesterday highlighted that continuing trend, which has Democrats optimistic. The Senate Leadership Fund has projected it will need to spend upward of $200 million to save Paxton in the general election, according to Punchbowl News.

That’s been a big part of the Cornyn camp’s argument for their guy. But it only seems to be resonating with part of the electorate: In the Hobby poll, voters were split down the middle — 43% apiece — on who would be a stronger candidate in November.

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A three-way spat in the Texas GOP resurfaced this week after conservative activists stirred up complaints against Chair Abraham George and dragged in state Rep. Jared Patterson.

GOP precinct chair and activist Sarah Fields yesterday accused George of coercing the State Republican Executive Committee to vote against banning Patterson from the primary ballot by patching in White House political director Matt Brasseaux on speakerphone to wave them off.

The Blast and Current Revolt reported the call back in October. Fields’ biggest addition, apart from a photo of the huddle, was her likening it to “top-down control” of the Texas GOP, which prides itself as a grassroots-led organization.

The dispute comes as George gears up for a reelection bid at the Texas GOP Convention next month.

Former Texas GOP Chair Matt Rinaldi — whose tenure brought the onset of the Texas GOP’s rule change to potentially ban alleged RINOs from the primary ballot — came to George’s defense.

“Sounds [like] your issue lies with the Trump White House, not Abraham, and the SREC ultimately made the right move, considering all the facts,” Rinaldi replied on social media, arguing that the RPT would have lost the inevitable court battle and, in doing so, “made an enemy of the President, emboldened our worst GOP legislator, and wasted funds better spent prosecuting a very strong closed primary lawsuit with the State of Texas and Attorney General at our side.”

George is being challenged by his current vice chair, D’rinda Randall. Randall has selected former Dade Phelan challenger David Covey as her running mate, while George has turned to Amanda Hopper, the wife of hardline freshman state Rep. Andy Hopper, R-Decatur.

Patterson, who has made clear his distaste for the party’s right-wing activists, despite being on the conservative side of the House caucus, appeared to revel in the feud.

“Abraham George knew, or should have known, the SREC has as much say over Texas election law as the local rotary club,” Patterson responded last night, accusing Republicans of eating their own. “He only used it as a way to rile up his low-IQ base with a feeling of importance they’ve never experienced in life up to that point.”

Patterson also brought up when police were called to George’s home as he was leaving with a loaded gun to confront his wife’s alleged lover. George was not arrested or charged.

This morning, George took a jab at Patterson in response to a putdown by conservative podcaster Chris Salcedo, completing the triangle.

“Jared Patterson is about as much of a Republican as James Talarico is a pastor,” George wrote.

Next week:

View the full list of upcoming committee notices here and here.

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