By Renzo Downey and The Texas Tribune Politics Team

132 days until the midterms

IN TODAY’S BLAST

  • Rally around Paxton

  • A few stories to follow at the Democratic Convention

  • More 2027 messaging from Casar’s CPC

RALLY AROUND PAXTON

For all the concerns about Republicans uniting in November, we’re now seeing signs that GOP voters are rallying around their Senate candidate.

Attorney General Ken Paxton, who consistently polled behind Democratic state Rep. James Talarico during the heat of the GOP primary and runoff, has fared better in recent weeks. Talarico has not led in any poll released this month, the latest of which was yesterday’s Texas Politics Project poll.

Paxton gained 9 points since TPP’s April snapshot, rising to 43%. Talarico, meanwhile, held steady at 42%. The result — Paxton narrowly leading, within the margin of error — was in line with other June polls.

Talarico’s numbers among “lean Republicans” plummeted from 23% to 5%, most of those switching to Paxton. Similarly, his “lean conservative” support fell from 32% to 14% while Paxton’s grew from 42% to 62%.

The upside for Talarico is that he’s still polling better than former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke did at this point in the 2018 race. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz led O’Rourke 41% to 36% in TPP’s June 2018 poll.

Paxton’s 1-point lead is even slimmer compared to Texas’ statewide races since Cruz-O’Rourke. In TPP’s poll two years ago, for example, then-U.S. Rep. Colin Allred trailed Cruz by 11.

Former Southlake mayor John Huffman, who has been critical of or directly hindered the GOP’s unity push, depending on who you ask, posted yesterday that the thin margin should “concern” Paxton.

“Whether it concerns them enough to actually do the outreach work to achieve the ‘unity’ they keep talking about... that remains to be seen,” he wrote.

Additionally, Talarico continues to carry a clear plurality of independents, even growing his lead from 25 points to 28 points since April. However, Republicans who predicted that his polling ceiling is in the mid-40s ought to be feeling more confident right now.

Republicans, prepared after O’Rourke’s 2018 surprise, continue to feed a string of oppo against Talarico. The latest comes from a 2021 podcast interview in which the seminary student said, “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity.” He followed that up, saying he “always gets drawn back into it,” but his opponents have their quote to hammer him on the core facet of his political identity.

Notably, the TPP poll showed Talarico lost 4 points among those who consider religion “extremely important,” while Paxton gained 13 points in that category.

And as the key question of the summer becomes whether Talarico can energize Black voters, his support among that group inched up from 65% to 67%. The topic has come into sharper focus amid recent scrutiny of how U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett has been keeping Talarico at arm’s length.

But again, using the June 2018 TPP poll as a guidepost, O’Rourke was worse off among Black voters then than Talarico is now. The El Paso congressman retained only 49% of the Black vote at that point. He would go on to win that demographic with 89%.

Talarico still has time to shore up those voters. But the expected absence of Crockett and Allred at this week’s Texas Democratic Convention is only the latest sign that it won’t be easy.

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A FEW STORIES TO FOLLOW AT THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION

Republicans went all out for their “unity” party in Houston. Democrats will hope to match that when they convene in Corpus Christi this week.

The Tribune’s Kayla Guo and Alejandro Serrano will be on the ground. Look for their stories and follow them on social media for a live look at the convention.

Below are a few threads The Blast plans to follow:

  • The chair race: Will convention delegates cast a vote of confidence in Chair Kendall Scudder, who wants a full four-year term after a strong 15 months on the surface, despite tumultuous relations under the hood? Contrasting the state of the party against the end of former Chair Gilberto Hinojosa’s tenure, delegates could believe they’re in a good place.

    • As a correction from Monday’s Blast on the chair race, Texas Majority PAC didn’t organize volunteers to phone bank for Scudder — it employed its own staff.

  • The Burrows resolutions: Scudder and others have filed resolutions demanding Texas House Democrats oppose Republican House Speaker Dustin Burrows in the 2027 session. Although the Texas GOP has made a habit of weighing in on the speaker’s race, it’s historically been an internal matter decided by elected representatives. Privately — and publicly — some Democrats are opposing the anti-Burrows resolutions. However, that doesn’t mean opponents will support Burrows come January.

  • The secretary race: Here’s some inside baseball for you. The party secretary has traditionally been reserved for a representative from the labor wing of the party. Six candidates are running this time. Few, with the exception of Bonnie Mathias, have overt ties to the labor movement.

  • Dems are bros with Bernie: Democratic-socialist U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will be a featured speaker. On the heels of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s three endorsed left-wing candidates prevailing in their primaries yesterday, Republicans could see an opportunity to fan the flames of their expected case that Sanders’ trip to Corpus Christi amounts to a socialist takeover of the Texas Democratic Party.

MORE 2027 MESSAGING FROM CASAR’S CPC

U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, alongside leaders of the Democratic Black, Hispanic and Asian Pacific American caucuses, unveiled a new House resolution Wednesday in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark ruling that weakened Section 2, the linchpin of the Voting Rights Act.

The resolution put forth would aim to restore the full Voting Rights Act, expand the Supreme Court and establish an ethics code and term limit for the justices. Casar, an Austin Democrat who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said it would also abolish the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster.

While the resolution is unlikely to advance this Congress, it cracks the door open for Democrats and progressives to later hit back if they notch a majority in the next Congress.

After Texas Republicans approved a new congressional map in 2025, Casar is up for reelection in TX-37 rather than his current seat in TX-35, a change Casar described as part of the GOP’s “new Jim Crow maps.”

“I don’t think that Democrats should live in fear of what happens if we try to use Congress’ power,” he said. “We have to get rid of the Jim Crow filibuster that so far has just been protecting Republicans’ megadonors’ agenda.”

— Sam Habashy

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  • Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, a former radio host, is launching a podcast tomorrow titled “Lt. Dan.” His first guest will be the party’s Senate nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton.

  • TX-23: GIFFORDS PAC and Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar endorsed Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Padilla Stout is up against Republican Brandon Herrera, the “AK Guy” activist and gun-centric YouTuber. GIFFORDS PAC is a national gun violence prevention group founded by former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Arizona. Meanwhile, Herrera is running campaign giveaways — such as a Ruger AC-556 fully automatic machine gun.

  • Texas has officially requested a reimbursement from the federal government for the billions it spent on Operation Lone Star, the border security clampdown under the Biden administration, Gov. Greg Abbott’s office said Wednesday. OLS cost more than $11 billion. It is not clear how much the state will receive through funds made available by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which included some $13.5 billion for such compensations — most of it being distributed by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the rest by the Department of Justice. — Alejandro Serrano

  • Camp Mystic filed for bankruptcy.

  • U.S. Sen. John Cornyn told reporters that President Donald Trump spent most of his meeting with Senate Republicans today talking about “things which were not exactly unifying” despite ending his meeting with a call for unity. And on the SAVE America Act, Cornyn said, “Really, what he wants to do is eliminate the filibuster, which is what he said. There’s not the votes to do that either, so [at] some point you got to bow to reality, and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.”

  • Tarek and Mohamed Hussein, the Muslim father and son duo who attended the Texas GOP Convention this month, have each donated to both Republicans and Democrats in recent years, including U.S. Reps. Al Green, D-Houston, Ilhan Omar, D-Minnesota, and Rashida Tlaib, D-Michigan. [h/t Mark McCaig of The Texas Voice]

It’s the question shaping every Texas classroom, and the question educators rarely get to answer together: What makes a great school?

We’re gathering public school teachers, administrators and school leaders from around the state to explore the realities shaping Texas schools today.

Panels will focus on:

  • How changes to education policy affect the classroom

  • The ways schools support students’ needs related to mental health, housing, food and more

  • The role of technology in the classroom

  • Where meaningful policy changes actually happen, and how educators can play a role

In-person attendance is reserved for Texas public school educators, and the day’s programs will be livestreamed and available on-demand to the larger public.

The daylong symposium begins at 9 a.m. Wednesday, July 1, and the event will conclude at 3:30 p.m.

Earn CPE credits! This event is eligible for up to 4 hours of continuing professional education (CPE) credits through a partnership with the Association of Texas Professional Educators (ATPE).

RSVP today

  • The Texas Conservative Coalition Research Institute and Florida’s James Madison Institute will unveil a new white paper tomorrow titled “The Litigation Lobby: Civil Justice Reform and the Future of the Texas-Florida Economic Advantage.” The paper could make some noise in the evergreen Texans for Lawsuit Reform vs. trial lawyers debate.

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“Cornyn and Crockett remain top skeptics of their party’s U.S. Senate nominees after primary losses,” by Kayla Guo of The Texas Tribune

“USDA defends screwworm response amid congressional fingerpointing,” by Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune

“He met his wife at Camp Mystic. Decades later, he lost his granddaughter there,” by Sarah Smith of the Houston Chronicle

“NHL exploring Austin, Houston for expansion team,” by Emily Kaplan of ESPN

“A giraffe named Gracie escaped in Texas. No one can seem to find her,” by David Fischer of The Associated Press

Interim hearing coverage:

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Disclosure: Texans for Lawsuit Reform has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.