The Blast - Wed, Jul. 1, 2026

125 days until the midterms

Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is leading Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar by 9 points in TX-28, according to a new Tijerina internal poll — a shock to Democrats and Republicans alike.

That doesn’t mean they believe it, though.

The race is one of national Republicans’ top targets, especially after GOP lawmakers redrew the district last year to be a Trump +10 seat — up 3 points from the 2024 margin.

However, many Republicans in Texas have largely resigned themselves to Cuellar’s reelection, given his name ID, reputation as a moderate and the trend of Hispanic voters shifting back to Democrats, in polling and elections, since 2024.

The Tijerina poll gives Republicans reasons to be optimistic, but there are a few reasons observers are viewing the results with a degree of skepticism.

Pulse Decision Science, formerly WPA Intelligence, is a nationally recognized firm that has worked with the Republican National Committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund, Club for Growth and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2016 campaign. However, WPA received a B/C grade from Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin in January, with an average error of 6.8 points and an R+0.8 bias.

PDS showed Paxton leading U.S. Sen. John Cornyn 49% to 32% in the March primary, which saw Cornyn finish narrowly ahead of Paxton. But, hey, it correctly called U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 13%.

There’s also the difficulty of polling South Texas, which has historically been a tough assignment for pollsters thanks to the language gap, low response rates and an outsized focus on hyper-local issues — not to mention the electorate’s volatility in recent years.

Diving into the TX-28 poll, it shows Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee, Gina Hinojosa, outperforming Senate candidate James Talarico by 3 points within the district. It’s possible Hinojosa could run ahead of Talarico in some parts of the state, but yesterday’s New York Times poll showed the Senate nominee at 57% in San Antonio and South Texas while Hinojosa was at 52%.

Specifically, Gov. Greg Abbott leads Hinojosa 50% to 42% in the TX-28 survey, and Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton are tied at 39%.

“While the U.S. Senate race is tighter here, Attorney General Paxton is not a drag on the overall Republican ticket,” according to PDS’ memo.

The pollster surveyed 400 likely voters, resulting in a relatively high margin of error of +/- 4.9 points. Additionally, only 15% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish, which is low for the region. Democrats have been conducting polling in TX-28 with as many as 27% of interviews in Spanish.

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A national Democratic strategist with information on the race told The Blast that internal Democratic polls have Cuellar leading by a healthy amount. The strategist also said Talarico has been leading Paxton in the district in recent weeks.

Along those lines, the Tijerina-commissioned poll is just one survey. It takes several to determine a trend. Not only has there been little polling this cycle, but there wasn’t much of a polling baseline from years prior, either.

A Republican familiar with the race called the TX-34 showdown between U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, and Army veteran Eric Flores “the better pickup opportunity.” However, Trump won both redrawn districts by 10 points. And although Cuellar was reelected by 5.6 points and Gonzalez by only 2.6 points under the old lines, the Republican source said the party didn’t have great candidates, and they ran with minimal national support.

This time, national Republicans actually have the races on their radar.

Both Flores and Tijerina are part of the National Republican Congressional Campaign’s “MAGA Majority” program. Flores has been their flagship candidate, receiving the first MAGA Majority battlestation and video. The group rolled out its Tijerina video last week.

Whether or not the Tijerina poll is on solid ground, the NRCC is running with it.

“After decades in Washington, self-serving Henry Cuellar is in free fall as his record of raising costs, enabling border chaos, and dragging a cloud of corruption over South Texas finally catches up with him,” NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez said in a press release. “Judge Tano Tijerina is outraising him, outworking him, and now beating him because South Texans are ready to retire Cuellar once and for all.”

As state Rep. Jon Rosenthal attempts to make a bipartisan pitch in his bid for railroad commissioner, the Houston Democrat is getting together with leaders in the oil and gas industry.

A source close to the Rosenthal campaign told The Blast that Rosenthal met with the Texas Oil and Gas Association on Monday and has been in initial discussions with Exxon and Chevron.

A Rosenthal campaign memo, first reported by Texas Bullpen, compared Rosenthal’s votes against those of House Energy Resources Committee Chair Drew Darby, R-San Angelo. The memo highlighted key votes that matched Darby’s and times Rosenthal broke from House Democrats on energy issues.

“If elected, Rep. Rosenthal won’t be a partisan on the Railroad Commission — he will continue to act in the same methodical and deliberate manner that he has in his entire legislative career,” the Rosenthal campaign wrote.

“Multiple people” in the TXOGA room told Rosenthal’s team he “had a lot more to say in terms of the actual substance about the issues” than Republican Bo French, who met with the industry group last week, according to the source.

TXOGA did not respond to the Tribune’s request for comment.

French, the former Tarrant County GOP chair who Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick accused of “antisemitism and religious bigotry” in 2025, is often considered the weakest link in the GOP statewide slate. Immigration and Sharia law have been two of his biggest campaign issues, even as he runs to serve on the oil and gas regulatory board.

French defeated incumbent commission Chair Jim Wright in May largely on that culture war messaging. Hawk Dunlap, who finished fifth in the March GOP primary with 7.7%, introduced Rosenthal at last week’s Texas Democratic Convention with a speech touting bipartisanship.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court upheld birthright citizenship yesterday, French has focused the bulk of his attention on that “traitorous” decision, calling for the state to defy it by declining to issue birth certificates to “anchor babies.”

“Texas can just do things and we should,” he posted on social media.

User @evandariel1 — whose pro-Trump account has an AI profile picture but says they’re based in Texas — put French’s position in context.

“I fully support this,” evandariel1 replied to French. “Though, how would RR commissioner do this?”

In an interview with conservative commentator Benny Johnson, who likened French’s plan to making a “sanctuary state for Americans,” French tried to link his citizenship stance back to the Railroad Commission for people and bots like evandariel1:

“For me, it is defending Texas, defending our oil and gas industry, and making sure that that benefits Texans and Americans, and not a bunch of foreigners.”

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It’s official. National Republicans will hold their first-ever midterm convention in Dallas this year, an attempt to channel their base’s enthusiasm for President Donald Trump into an election that won’t feature him on the ballot.

“The president loves Dallas,” Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters told the Tribune’s Gabby Birenbaum, noting it was Trump who picked the location.

In an interview with the Tribune’s D.C. correspondent — who gracefully took the call on her day off — Gruters said the party was innovating a new strategy to win the midterms, a time when the party in the White House typically backslides. Trump’s national approval rating has settled around the high 30s for the last couple months, while the Texas Politics Project has had his favorability underwater in the state for the last year.

“Everything comes down to, ‘How do we defy history in November?’, and we do that by doing things differently,” Gruters said.

All 50 states will send delegates to the convention, which the GOP expects to draw at least 20,000 people to a yet-announced downtown location on Sept. 9 and 10. However, the party won’t conduct official business. The goal is to contrast Trump’s accomplishments and vision for his last two years with those of Democrats.

In a likely preview of the messaging in Dallas, Gruters pointed to recent primaries, like congressional races in New York and Colorado, where democratic socialists have defeated incumbent Democrats.

“They’re beholden to the socialists and these terrorist sympathizers and are getting pushed farther and farther to the left,” he said.

The president might love Dallas, but there’s some substance to the decision, too. Under Trump, the GOP has struggled to draw low-propensity voters in midterms and special elections without the president on the ballot. Making the race about him could bring out those supporters, Republicans hope.

Additionally, Texas is a hot electoral state in 2026. In recent years, the number of competitive congressional races had fallen to three out of 38 seats. Redistricting put more seats in play, and the Senate race between state Rep. James Talarico and Attorney General Ken Paxton has turned Texas into an even bigger battleground.

Trump has said he’ll “do some nice, big, beautiful rallies for Ken.” The convention could be one of them.

Democrats are already taking it as a sign the GOP is worried about the Lone Star State.

“If Republicans thought they had Texas ‘locked up’ electorally, why would they be hosting back-to-back conventions here?” gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa asked in a fundraising pitch today, pointing to the GOP’s 2028 national convention in Houston.

Although Gruters mentioned the Senate race as one of the reasons to hold the event in Dallas, he said he wasn’t concerned about Paxton’s financing, despite record fundraising from “Talacreepo.”

Another consideration the RNC is looking at is the U.S. Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision yesterday eliminating federal limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates. Previously, the RNC was blocked from coordinating with congressional candidates after $66,000, which Gruters said amounted to one, maybe two mailers.

“Now we’ll be able to fully watch everything that they do in coordination with them, nudge them where we need to, support them where they need and make sure that us or the collective doesn’t waste any resources,” he said.

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Next week

View the full list of upcoming committee notices here and here.

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“Supreme Court decision loosening campaign finance rules could be boon for Paxton in Senate race,” by Kayla Guo and Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune

“Corpus Christi declines to seek federal grant for long-debated water desalination plant,” by Colleen DeGuzman of The Texas Tribune

“A tabloid story gives Talarico a new opening to test attacks on Paxton,” by Bayliss Wagner of The New York Times (Gift link)

“Paxton’s office weighs in on lawsuit claiming Harris County commissioner illegally held two offices,” by Holly Hansen of The Texan

Column: “‘Heritage Americans’: An un-American idea,” by Karl Rove in The Wall Street Journal

Do you or someone in your office have a birthday you’d like mentioned? Email us.

(July 2) U.S. Rep. Randy Weber, R-Friendswood
(July 5) State Rep. David Cook, R-Mansfield

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