The Blast - October 3, 2025

17 days until early voting begins
32 days until the November election
36 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing period begins
66 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing deadline

IN TODAY’S BLAST

• Trent Ashby stands alone

• The Pierson TX-32 polling memo leaves an opening

• Another De La Cruz east of San Antonio

• The man behind the maps

TRENT ASHBY STANDS ALONE

After more than 18 years in the Legislature, state Sen. Brandon Creighton announced his resignation, effective at midnight last night, to serve as chancellor of the Texas Tech University System. And with the Conroe Republican’s official retirement, longtime Montgomery County District Attorney Brett Ligon announced his anticipated run for Creighton’s seat.

Ligon, Montgomery County’s longest serving DA, has held that office since 2009. He’s also been a longtime client of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s consultant, Allen Blakemore, and picked up Patrick’s endorsement today, one day after launching.

So far, five Republican state senators have resigned or announced that they aren’t running for reelection in 2026. Patrick and Blakemore have been tied to candidates in each of those races, except in the case of who will succeed retiring Sen. Robert Nichols of Jacksonville.

State Rep. Trent Ashby of Lufkin and recent State Republican Executive Committee member Rhonda Ward of Nacogdoches have filed to run in Senate District 3 GOP primary. However, neither have received Patrick’s coveted endorsement, nor are they partnered with Blakemore. At this stage in the race, Capitol observers are reading that as a deliberate decision on the part of the Senate’s kingmakers.

Patrick and Blakemore have already thrown their weight around Senate primaries this year. In Senate District 9, where Kelly Hancock of North Richland Hills resigned his seat in June to be appointed interim comptroller and run for that statewide office, state Rep. Nate Schatzline of Fort Worth announced his campaign for that seat. But when Patriot Mobile communications executive and Patriot Mobile Action Executive Director Leigh Wambsganss hired Blakemore and launched her campaign a few days later, Schatzline dropped out and endorsed Wambsganss, and Patrick followed suit.

If Patrick doesn’t weigh in on the SD 3 primary, it will mark the first time that Patrick or Blakemore haven’t waded into a given Senate GOP primary since at least 2020.

Accentuating Patrick’s silence in that race, Patrick has his reception with A&M PAC tomorrow afternoon. Ashby, class of 1995, won’t have his reception till the following Saturday.

By contrast, Gov. Greg Abbott had a whole slate of special guests at his A&M PAC fundraiser last weekend, including House Appropriations Committee Chair Greg Bonnen of Friendswood and Reps. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City, Stan Kitzman of Pattison, Brooks Landgraf of Odessa and Angelia Orr of Itasca — as well as Ashby.

Another note to make with the SD 3 race is the continued loss of East Texas clout in the Legislature this cycle.

Ashby ostensibly has a relationship with the Senate. He repped rural House Republicans during this past session’s public education funding fight.

Assuming they win their reelections, Sens. Bob Hall of Edgewood and Bryan Hughes of Mineola and Reps. Keith Bell of Forney, Jay Dean of Longview, Cody Harris of Palestine, Cole Hefner of Mount Pleasant and Gary VanDeaver of New Boston will be the remaining tenured members of the East Texas delegation. Reps. Daniel Alders of Tyler, Janis Holt of Silsbee, Shelley Luther of Tom Bean, Brent Money of Greenville and Joanne Shofner of Nacogdoches were freshmen this year. Ashby, if elected, would sit at the bottom of the Senate totem pole next session. And if you count Creighton’s seat and retiring former House Speaker Dade Phelan of Beaumont as Southeast Texas lawmakers, that’s another pair of experienced lawmakers departing.

The East Texas Council of Governments also counts Rep. Brian Harrison of Midlothian, who hopes to stick around, as part of the East Texas delegation. However, he operates with a different kind of clout.

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THE PIERSON TX-32 POLLING MEMO LEAVES AN OPENING

A polling memo of the nascent GOP primary for the reworked 32nd Congressional District bills freshman state Rep. Katrina Pierson as the “clear early front-runner” in the Dallas to East Texas seat before she’s even jumped in. However, the poll suggests there may be potential weaknesses for the Rockwall Republican.

Pierson leads with 15% to the prospective field’s 18%, leaving 68% undecided. The survey, conducted by Stratus Intelligence, polled for businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, former Arlington City Council member Darrell Day (which the memo misspelled) and former state House candidate Will Douglas. Binkley and Day have already launched their campaigns.

The memo identified Pierson as the only candidate with name recognition in the double digits, cracking 41%. Yet, Pierson managed only a 13% favorability and 5% unfavorability among the 411 likely primary voters polled.

Pierson, a former national spokesperson for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, ousted state Rep. Justin Holland, R-Rockwall, in what became a relatively high-profile primary after Gov. Greg Abbott backed her. Brad Parscale, a former Trump digital director and campaign manager, preemptively endorsed Pierson last week on behalf of Jefferson Rising PAC. However, Pierson and Parscale’s connections to Trump world are more frayed than they once were.

TX-32 is anticipated to become an open race after the district, currently held by freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch, was drawn from a Harris +24 seat to a Trump +18 seat this summer.

Most of Pierson’s district is located in Rockwall County, with a significant portion also in the part of Collin County that overlaps with TX-32. Rockwall County and its 108,000 residents make up the second largest segment of TX-32 after Dallas County.

Of those who have voted in two of the last four GOP primaries in the new TX-32, 26% hail from Pierson’s district, according to L2 voter data shared with The Blast. That’s less than two-thirds of the vote share she got in the polling memo.

The Stratus Intelligence memo says Pierson is the only candidate with a meaningful profile and has room to grow. However, room to grow also means there’s plenty of room for a high-profile candidate to squeeze Pierson out of the pole position.

ANOTHER DE LA CRUZ EAST OF SAN ANTONIO

Carlos De La Cruz, brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, announced his campaign for the new 35th Congressional District in Bexar County and its easterly adjacent counties.

The Air Force veteran and small business owner joins the GOP primary with state Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, and others hoping to capitalize on the Harris +33 to Trump +10 redraw.

Not only has Carlos De La Cruz already nabbed his sister’s endorsement, but the name could carry outsized weight in the new TX-35.

Monica De La Cruz, a Republican from Edinburg, currently represents Karnes County, Wilson County and the eastern, more rural 40% of Guadalupe County in TX-15. She’s been elected to that district twice.

All three counties fall within the new TX-35. However, Bexar County makes up the vast majority of the district.

Read more about the campaign launch here from the Tribune’s Marijke Friedman.

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THE MAN BEHIND THE MAPS

After spending years battling each other over the legality of Texas’ voting maps, the lawyers representing the state and the redistricting plaintiffs have become quite chummy. As the hearing over the 2025 congressional map kicked off in the same courtroom where they just concluded a monthlong trial over the 2021 maps earlier this summer, they complimented each others’ new haircuts, caught up on summer plans and traded jokes about being back in El Paso so soon. 

Which is why it stood out when Ryan Kercher, head of special litigation at the Office of the Attorney General, and Nina Perales, with the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, (politely) sparred over the plaintiffs’ request to depose one of the state’s witnesses. 

At the center of the conflict, as he is at the center of most redistricting litigation in Texas, was Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust. Kincaid, the GOP’s mapdrawer-in-chief, was the proclaimed “hand on the mouse” who drew Texas’ 2021 maps and he also recently handled a controversial redraw of Tarrant County’s commissioners’ court map. 

But what role did he play in the 2025 congressional map? The Democratic lawmakers who testified this week said they could never get a straight answer from their Republican colleagues on whether Kincaid drew this map, which Perales described as a “legislative shell game.” 

The plaintiffs are trying to prove that the state — lawmakers themselves, or their hired hands — racially gerrymandered and intentionally diluted Black and Hispanic Texans’ votes. Figuring out who drew the map, what data they consulted and how they considered race in the process is central to that finding. The judges rejected Perales’ deposition request, but Kercher has said he will call Kincaid as a witness next week, so some of these questions may be answered on the stand. 

The state is expected to begin presenting their witnesses mid-week, and they have a line-up that rivals ACL for big names (in certain #txlege circles, at least). In addition to Kincaid, they’re likely to put committee chairs Sen. Phil King and Rep. Cody Vasut on the stand, and may call Sen. Adam Hinojosa, Secretary of State Director of Elections Christina Adkins and Senate Secretary Patsy Spaw. 

The hearing will conclude next Friday. The plaintiffs are asking the judges to block the new map from being used in the 2026 midterm.

— Eleanor Klibanoff

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• TX-SEN: U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s campaign announced that former Texas GOP Executive Director Kyle Whatley will be the campaign’s political director. Whatley has worked multiple Republican campaigns, served more than five years as the Texas GOP’s ED and before that served as chief of staff to the late U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania.

• TX-10: Chris Gober, an attorney for Elon Musk, launched a campaign to succeed longtime U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin.

• HD-41: State Rep. Bobby Guerra, D-Mission, announced his retirement. McAllen City Council member Victor “Seby” Haddad, the city’s mayor pro tem, said he is running for the district as a Democrat.

• HD-50: André Treiber, former chief of staff to state Rep. Rhetta Andrews Bowers, D-Rowlett, announced that he would not run for the seat being vacated by state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin. Samantha Lopez-Resendez, after rolling out an endorsement from her former boss, state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin, announced support from former Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes, several other current and former state lawmakers, Capitol staffers and more.

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• Gov. Greg Abbott appointed Tonya Miller of Austin to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for a term set to expire in August 2031. Miller is a director at the Texas Water Development Board and previously served as the executive director of the Texas Solar Power Association, public council and CEO for the Texas Public Utility Counsel and served multiple roles at TCEQ.

• The governor appointed Ashley Morgan of Georgetown to the TWDB for a term set to expire in February 2027. Morgan previously worked legislative affairs in Abbott’s office and followed Abbott from the Office of the Attorney General.

• The Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation is soliciting applications to serve as volunteer members of the department’s new nine-member Lottery Advisory Committee now that TDLR has taken over the lottery.

• The Texas A&M University System Board of Regents has named former state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, to serve as interim president of Texas A&M. Read more here.

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“Renewed focus on Roberson case is latest in deluge of political pressure aimed at Texas judiciary” by Alejandro Serrano of The Texas Tribune

“UT-Austin considering offer to adopt Trump priorities for funding advantages” by Jessica Priest and Nicholas Gutteridge of The Texas Tribune

“Texas campus ban on late-night expression ‘vexing’ to judge” by Ryan Autullo of Bloomberg Law

“U.S. Rep. Chip Roy demands answers after pastor says he couldn’t access DFW Airport chapel” by Jordan Parker of The Dallas Morning News

McCaul: “This Republican Texas congressman has a warning for Donald Trump on tariffs” by James Osborne of the Houston Chronicle

“‘I still have your casket.’ Fort Worth mayor’s meeting remark draws scrutiny” by Harrison Mantas of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram

A choice graphic ahead of a potential censure:

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(Oct. 3) U.S. Rep. Craig Goldman, R-Fort Worth
(Oct. 3) State Rep. Angelia Orr, R-Itasca

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Chad Cantella is a political insider specializing in education, healthcare, criminal justice and workforce. Learn more about his work.

Disclosure: The Texas Tech University System and the University of Texas at Austin have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.