The Blast: October 15, 2025

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The Blast | Texas Tribune
October 15, 2025

By Renzo Downey and The Texas Tribune Politics Team

5 days until early voting begins
20 days until the November election
24 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing period begins
54 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing deadline

IN TODAY’S BLAST

  • Louisiana oral arguments with Texas-sized implications

  • Federal fundraising nuggets

  • Lege staffer joins growing race to succeed Bobby Guerra

LOUISIANA ORAL ARGUMENTS WITH TEXAS-SIZED IMPLICATIONS

The U.S. Supreme Court today heard oral arguments in Louisiana v. Callais, a case that could nuke a core section of the Voting Rights Act and precipitate another national wave of redistricting, even in Texas.

The case surrounds Louisiana’s second majority-Black congressional district, which state lawmakers redrew in 2024 after two lower courts found that the state’s maps likely violated the section of the Voting Rights Act that bars election or voting practices that dilute the electoral power of voters of color. A group of self-described “non-African-American” voters sued Louisiana over the new district, arguing it is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and Louisiana has taken their side.

Section 2 of the VRA has long been used to give non-white voters an opportunity to elect representatives of their choice in states with a history of racial discrimination. Before the Supreme Court today, Louisiana Solicitor General Benjamin Aguiñaga argued that the current interpretation has placed states in an impossible position where they are forced to discriminate to offset decades-old transgressions.

“Under protest, we drew SB 8 [the 2024 map] because the threat was that the federal courts were going to do it if we didn’t, and I think that’s the best way to conceive of why SB 8 exists,” Aguiñaga said. “We would never pass SB 8 in the first instance without Robinson [v. Landry].”

That’s similar to the logic state Rep. Todd Hunter, the Corpus Christi Republican who filed Texas’ new map, outlined in a conversation hosted last month by the Texas GOP. Chair Abraham George had asked why the Legislature stopped at five new Trump-leaning seats.

“It was a safer legal position to go five today, but I will tell you that, next year, you could have a new issue,” Hunter said. “And so, the issue is not over at all, but it was mainly following the safe, legal basis.”

Texas’ delegation is currently made up of 25 Republicans and 12 Democrats, with a vacancy in the safely blue 18th Congressional District. This summer’s redraw would give Republicans a 30-8 advantage if they win every district carried by President Donald Trump in 2024. However, two of the five GOP targets are South Texas seats where the incumbent Democrats, Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, ran ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to an analysis from Fair Fight Action and the Black Voters Matter Fund, Texas could push its map to 35-3 with an aggressive redraw. If the Supreme Court razes Section 2, those groups forecast that state legislatures across the country could craft an additional 27 safe GOP seats compared to the 2024 map, a heavy swing in Congress in favor of Republicans.

“I’m not going to tell you that the effort and the momentum has stopped,” Hunter said of Texas’ redistricting. “It could be reviewed again.”

And most states don’t have their primaries as early as Texas. Depending on how quickly the Supreme Court rules, other states could have their maps ready in time for 2026.

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FEDERAL FUNDRAISING NUGGETS

Today is the deadline for third-quarter campaign finance reports for federal offices, and while much of the data isn’t in yet, we can start to piece together the money picture for the marquee primaries.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $1.3 million and has $3.2 million on hand. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, who raised $366,000, spent $1.9 million and has $1.5 million on hand. However, all that came before Hunt launched his Senate campaign.

Hunt says he entered the race against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn because Paxton wasn’t campaigning hard enough. Hunt spent $1.9 million in Q3 — again, before launching his Senate campaign — compared to Paxton’s $631,000 spent. Cornyn reported a nearly $3.4 million haul across his multiple campaign accounts, including his joint fundraising committees — some of which cannot be transferred to his campaign because it exceeds the amount that can be given to a single candidate.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, is far and away the biggest fundraiser at the House level, with $2.7 million raised and $4.6 million cash on hand. That would come in handy if she needs to defend her seat against U.S. Reps. Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch or Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, both of whom had their districts upended during the GOP’s summer redistricting. Johnson hasn’t decided where she’s running but is unlikely to stay in her current district, which was drawn to heavily favor Republicans; she raised $429,000 and reported $807,000 cash on hand.

Crockett has also been floated as a possible Senate contender, an idea she has not ruled out. Her haul is shy of what state Rep. James Talarico of Austin posted with his $6.3 million raised and $5 million left on hand in his Senate campaign. Former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas has not filed with the Federal Election Commission yet, though he previously announced that he’d raised $4.1 million during the period.

Meanwhile, former Major League Baseball first baseman Mark Teixeira raised more than several sitting members of Congress in his bid to succeed U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin. Teixeira took in $714,000 — most of which came from the $500,000 he loaned his campaign — and has $696,000 on hand.

Over in the new Houston-area GOP district, former Harris County judge candidate Alex Mealer set a tough bar for state Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park, posting $616,000 raised and $562,000 on hand. Cain raised $274,000 and left $267,000 on hand.

In another GOP pickup opportunity, state Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, raised $76,000 and reported $70,000 on hand in his bid for Texas’ 35th Congressional District. He received $1,000 each from state Reps. David Cook of Mansfield and Pat Curry of Waco, and $2,500 from the leadership PAC of U.S. Rep. Jake Ellzey of Waxahachie. However, Lujan was outraised by fellow TX-35 contender Josh Cortez, who hauled in $160,000 and has $108,000 on hand. Carlos De La Cruz entered the race after the end of Q3.

Republican Jessica Steinmann of Montgomery raised $627,000 and has $618,000 on hand in her race to succeed U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, R-Magnolia. The retiring congressman today joined U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick in endorsing Steinmann.

State Rep. Steve Toth, R-Conroe, is giving U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Humble, a run for his money in Houston’s northern suburbs. Toth raised $303,000 to Crenshaw’s $430,000 and has $255,000 on hand to Crenshaw’s $669,000. However, Crenshaw spent about eight times as much as Toth.

YouTuber and Second Amendment activist Brandon Herrera raised $305,000 in his rematch against U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio, roughly matching the incumbent’s $320,000 haul. However, Gonzales has $2.5 million on hand compared to Herrera’s $306,000 and will likely get outside support from GOP congressional leadership, as he did when he eked out a win last year.

As far as other incumbents go, U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, has $1.7 million on hand as she prepares to defend her TX-15 seat, which remains the most viable GOP target for Texas Democrats. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, has $364,000 on hand and U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, posted $1.3 million on hand. Both are being targeted by Republicans after their seats were redrawn to be more favorable for the GOP.

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LEGE STAFFER JOINS GROWING RACE TO SUCCEED BOBBY GUERRA

In the race to succeed retiring state Rep. Bobby Guerra, new entrant Julio Salinas says the race is a fight for the future of the Rio Grande Valley.

Salinas, a Lege staffer and co-chair of the Texas Democratic Party’s Hispanic Caucus, today launched his campaign for House District 41. He joins McAllen City Commissioner Victor “Seby” Haddad and Eric Holguín, state director of UnidosUS, in the Democratic primary.

Guerra, a moderate Democrat from Mission who has served in the House for 13 years, announced his retirement this month. Guerra defeated Republican John Robert Guerra, 53.5% to 46.5%, in 2024. 

President Donald Trump carried the district with 50.3% to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.7%. That marked a 7-point rightward lurch for the district compared to 2020, emblematic of the trajectory the Rio Grande Valley has followed in recent years.

“We are in a fight for the Valley and the future of what it can be,” Salinas, of McAllen, said in an interview with The Blast ahead of his launch.

Salinas says the opening salvo of his campaign will be about how Texas’ and Trump’s immigration policies are crowding out small businesses. The current policies have had a chilling effect on the local economy by putting fear in the community and driving a lack of investment, he argued.

Salinas, who plans to roll out several endorsements from current and former state representatives, hopes to set himself apart from the other candidates by being the RGV’s “community” candidate. However, his rhetoric isn’t too different from that of his competitors. Haddad is touting his business background and vowing to focus on creating economic opportunities for the district. Holguín is also running on affordability.

But Haddad, a well-known city commissioner with ties to Guerra, had voted Republican until 2024. Meanwhile, Holguín is running as a Democrat “with a spine,” posting photos this month of himself with former President Joe Biden, former Vice President Kamala Harris, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio.

Although party labels tend to be more fluid in the Valley, some have raised concerns about Holguín’s viability and whether Haddad — who Republicans tried to recruit this cycle — would stay loyal to Democrats in the House. Salinas rejects the idea that he hopes to occupy the middle lane, saying his campaign is more about being a community candidate.

Across the aisle, lawyer Sergio Sanchez is running as a Republican despite a history of voting in Democratic primaries. He shares his name with a conservative radio host in the McAllen area.

“It’s wild. That whole race is,” one Republican consultant told The Blast. “We could have a Democrat nominee with Republican vote history and a Republican nominee with Democrat vote history.”

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  • Governor: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, rolled out her campaign this morning and is doing her first event this evening in Brownsville.

  • TX-10: Bee Cave Mayor Kara King launched her campaign to succeed U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin. King, who took office in April 2020, joins Elon Musk-tied attorney Chris Gober and others in the Republican primary.

  • TX-18: The 24-hour reporting period of independent expenditures begins tomorrow for the special election.

  • HD-49: Josh Reyna, chief of staff to state Sen. César Blanco, D-El Paso, announced his intention to succeed Hinojosa. Lynn Boswell, president of the Austin ISD board of trustees, filed a campaign treasurer appointment on Monday but told The Blast yesterday that she decided not to run.

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“Texas added nearly 1,400 orphaned oil wells to its list this year” by Rachel Nostrant of the Houston Chronicle

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(Oct. 15) Former state Rep. Jill Dutton, R-Ben Wheeler

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