The Blast: October 10, 2025

10 days until early voting begins
25 days until the November election
28 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing period begins
58 days until the 2026 primary candidate filing deadline

IN TODAY’S BLAST

• It’s censure time

• Paxton opens closed primary tussle

• Senate polls show tight races

IT’S CENSURE TIME

Tomorrow is the big day. The State Republican Executive Committee will meet in the Capitol in the morning and vote to consider censures against 10 Texas House Republicans, including Speaker Dustin Burrows, an effort that could put their access to the primary ballot at risk.

There’s no guarantee that the 64-member panel goes through with any of the 10 censures or whether they levy the strongest penalty possible, which would be to instruct the state and county party chairs to ban those members from the 2026 primary ballot. It takes three-fifths of the SREC to approve a censure under the party rules.

The members are:

• Speaker Burrows of Lubbock

• Angie Chen Button of Garland

• Cody Harris of Palestine

• Stan Lambert of Abilene (retiring)

• Jeff Leach of Allen

• Morgan Meyer of University Park

• Angelia Orr of Itasca

• Jared Patterson of Frisco

• Dade Phelan of Beaumont (retiring)

• Gary VanDeaver of New Boston

No member The Blast has heard from says they plan to show up in person. Leach, for example, is choosing to attend his son’s football game. However, Burrows and six other members wrote a letter to Texas GOP Chair Abraham George saying the censures would violate their rights to political association, ballot access and freedom of speech.

“The Republican Party of Texas must be a vehicle for voter empowerment — not disenfranchisement of its own members,” they wrote. “It must champion free speech, open debate and democratic competition, not exclusionary tactics and insider control.”

Nearly 100 years of court precedent suggests the censure rule is illegal, and penalized members would surely make that case in court, with the help of emerging GOP megadonor Alex Fairly. However, other groups like the Tennessee GOP have banned candidates from their ballot for not being conservative enough, as former Texas GOP Chair Matt Rinaldi pointed out on a recent podcast episode with True Texas Project.

Your lead Blast writer plans to be at tomorrow’s SREC meeting, which is scheduled for 10 a.m. in the Capitol extension’s auditorium. For planning purposes, you can expect a story at texastribune.org after the meeting and Blast follow-ups next week.

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PAXTON OPENS CLOSED PRIMARY TUSSLE

In another issue of party purity and political association, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sided with the Texas GOP against the Texas Secretary of State in the party’s effort to close its primaries.

The Texas GOP filed its suit in an Amarillo court last month after the 2025 legislative season came and went without an effort to close state primaries.

“The unconstitutional law stopping the RPT from closing its primaries is completely indefensible and a slap in the face to the Republican Party and voters,” Paxton said in a press release, calling on the SOS to “respect the will of Texas voters.”

The Texas GOP argues that open primaries violate the party’s right to free association, which extends from the First Amendment. The party voted to close its primaries at the 2024 state convention, delegates’ top priority for the convention, as far as rule changes were concerned.

“General Paxton’s bold action is a triumph for every state convention delegate, grassroots activist, precinct chair and Republican voter who has tirelessly fought for this cause,” Texas GOP Chair Abraham George said in a statement.

Critics of closed primaries argue that crossover voting rarely changes the outcome of an election. Last year, David Covey, who challenged then-House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, blamed his primary loss on crossover voters.

Beyond potential crossover voters, critics also argue that closing the primaries could box out potential party newcomers.

“We need to ensure every Trump voter is able to participate in the Republican primary in Texas, and I have complete and total faith in [Gov. Greg Abbott] and his team to do so,” U.S. Sen. John Cornyn posted on social media this morning.

As the Tribune’s Eleanor Klibanoff explored last night, this is the latest in a string of cases where Paxton has actively campaigned for the courts to strike down a state law.

And with Paxton’s primary against Cornyn, the case could become something for Paxton to campaign on.

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SENATE POLLS SHOW TIGHT RACES

Paxton leads Cornyn 34%-33% in the latest University of Houston poll of the GOP primary. With the margin of error, that means they are virtually tied.

That’s continued good news for Cornyn, who has clawed back support after early polls showed him trailing Paxton, even by double digits. Cornyn and his apparatus of supporters have been spending big to offset those polls.

The Decision Desk HQ polling average now puts Cornyn at 41.5% and Paxton at 39.5%.

U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, polled at 22%. The survey was conducted between Sept. 19 and Oct. 1, days before Hunt entered the race.

“Hunt has time to make up ground, but he’s at a disadvantage in what is shaping up to be a very expensive race,” said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the UH Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Yesterday, Politico obtained a poll from the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority that found Cornyn up 33% to 28% over Paxton, with Hunt at 21%. And the finding from that poll showed that 48% of the Hunt voters would back Paxton if forced to choose while 24% would back Cornyn.

On the Democratic side of the Hobby poll, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas leads state Rep. James Talarico of Austin in a head-to-head 46%-42%. However, both are surpassed if U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso enter the race.

Talarico’s colleague, state Rep. Venton Jones, D-Dallas, was quick to point out that Talarico trailed Allred by nearly 40 points among Black voters in the head-to-head poll.

“It’s disappointing to see a campaign share selective polling that leaves out Black voters entirely,” Jones posted on social media. “Black voters CANNOT be an afterthought — they’re the foundation of our party.”

And while we’re at it, does anyone know what this video is doing on the Cornyn campaign YouTube page?

• Gov. Greg Abbott about hefty Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker after Texas sent National Guard troops to the Chicago area. “He’s talking about hot dog food and the Milwaukee Brewers. No wonder he’s a massive failure,” Abbott said on Fox News. “Did you see what Pete Hegseth said? He said that Pritzker needs to stop complaining and do some pushups.”

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• TX-SEN: Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker and former Mayor Betsy Price endorsed U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

• Governor?: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, a Rio Grande Valley native, has a special announcement lined up in Brownsville on Wednesday.

• TX-08: Former state Sen. Brandon Creighton, the Conroe Republican headed to lead the Texas Tech University System, endorsed Jessica Steinmann of Montgomery to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, R-Magnolia.

• TX-09: State Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park, raised $425,000 in the weeks since he announced his campaign for the redrawn district.

• TX-21: Former Major League Baseball first baseman Mark Teixeira says he raised $200,000 in Q3 in the GOP primary to succeed U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin. Weston Martinez, a former land commissioner candidate from San Antonio, says he will announce his campaign on Sunday.

• TX-35: Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia jumped into the race for the GOP-leaning seat.

• SD-4: State Rep. Will Metcalf, R-Conroe, endorsed longtime Montgomery County District Attorney Brett Ligon for the seat vacated by Creighton.

• U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, an Austin Republican running for Texas attorney general, is asking the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Texas to increase federal law enforcement in Loving County to prosecute “rampant foreign crime” and a “possible government overthrow scheme” of the local government. Loving County in West Texas is well outside of Roy’s district.

• State Board of Education member Aaron Kinsey has requested an opinion from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on whether the SBOE must implement a religious literature course on the Old and New testaments and their impact on history and literature as a required class or if that curriculum can be folded into reading or social studies.

• Gov. Greg Abbott will give remarks at the 3rd annual “Soles Walking 4 Souls” Fentanyl Awareness Walk. He’ll be joined by San Antonio Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones and other local leaders.

• Democratic Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford will swing through The Austin Club next week to fundraise for his gubernatorial bid.

• U.S. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, is scheduled as a special guest for the Harris County GOP fall dinner on Nov. 13.

Do you or someone in your office have a new job you’d like mentioned? Email us.

• Texas AFL-CIO President Rick Levy will retire on Dec. 1 after serving in that role since 2017. Leonard Aguilar will be the next president and Lorraine Montemayor will serve as the secretary-treasurer. From Levy’s parting statement: “The path to changing our country runs through Texas, and organizing the South is the clearest path for us to change this country for the better.”

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“Dallas County GOP’s push to hand-count 2026 ballots could upend voting for Democrats” by Natalia Contreras of Votebeat and The Texas Tribune

“Inside the rift between Texas Dems and a Soros-backed PAC” by Sam Russek for the Texas Observer

“How Ken Paxton, a rising MAGA star, got rich as a Texas politician” by Elizabeth Findell and Mark Maremont of The Wall Street Journal

Do you or someone in your office have a birthday you’d like mentioned? Email us.

(Oct. 10) State Rep. Candy Noble, R-Lucas
(Oct. 10) State Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie
(Oct. 10) U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio
(Oct. 12) State Rep. Mike Olcott, R-Fort Worth
(Oct. 13) Dallas Cowboys exec Jerry Jones

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Chad Cantella is a political insider specializing in education, healthcare, criminal justice and workforce. Learn more about his work.

Correction: In Wednesday’s edition of The Blast, Madison Andrus, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson, was misidentified.

Disclosure: Politico, the Texas Secretary of State, the Texas Tech University System and the University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.