The Blast - Mon, Feb. 16, 2026

1 day until early voting begins for the March 3 primary
15 days until Election Day in the March 3 primary

This weekend, Politico had a story about the home building industry sounding the alarm against President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement raids. Buried in the piece is a new analysis suggesting that more congressional seats could be in play than previously expected.

In Texas, that’s because Republicans banked on sustaining some degree of Trump’s record success among Latinos when they drafted the new congressional map. And if recent electoral trends among Hispanic voters in Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Tarrant County hold, Republicans’ attempt to pick up five Texas seats could be neutralized — or backfire.

The American Business Immigration Coalition and Comité de 100, a pair of groups promoting “common-sense” immigration policies, determined that Hispanic voters will decide the 2026 midterms.

“Neither party can take this electorate for granted, but the Republican exposure is acute: their House majority runs directly through districts where Latino voters have the numbers and the motivation to decide the outcome,” the report said, adding that “redistricting strategies built on static Latino support are now highly vulnerable” to even small shifts in Latino voting patterns.

The analysis looks at the Hispanic citizen voting-age population (CVAP) — in other words, those eligible to vote — in several House seats and considers what the map would look like under a 10- or 15-point swing toward Democrats. It assumes that Hispanic voters lag the general electorate in turnout by 10%.

Initially, Democrats were confident they could retain the seats currently held by U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez — two of the five targeted by the GOP map-drawers — and maybe flip that of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Since then, Democrats have expanded their target list to include the reworked TX-35, where 51.6% of the eligible voting population is Hispanic.

Tarrant County’s Senate District 9 special election runoff got Democrats feeling even more ambitious. In a press conference after the party’s surprise win there, Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder added the redrawn TX-09 and U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales’ TX-23 to his personal list. ABIC and Comité de 100’s analysis puts Democrats within spitting distance in TX-23 if Hispanics swing 15 points.

Statewide, Hispanic voters swung some 27 points to the right between 2022 and 2024, according to exit polls that found Beto O’Rourke winning that bloc by a 17-point margin over Gov. Greg Abbott, followed by Trump’s 10-point advantage the following cycle.

The Politico story named De La Cruz, of Edinburg, among those who met with home building industry leaders at the White House last week, along with Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles, House Speaker Mike Johnson and others.

ABIC and Comité de 100’s report focused on the Hispanic vote, but other analyses have reached similar conclusions.

As the Tribune’s Gabby Birenbaum noted last week, a pro-Cornyn super PAC sought to poke holes in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s electability with a memo suggesting that Republicans would only flip two of five redrawn seats if Paxton appears atop the ballot. Additionally, four “safe” GOP seats would be at risk, the super PAC-commissioned pollster said.

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The ink is hardly dry on last summer’s redistricting, but there are already growing calls for another round in 2027.

Texas Scorecard and the Texas GOP have been hyping up the possibility of redrawing state legislative districts ahead of the 2030 census, based on pending U.S. Supreme Court precedent. State Rep. Todd Hunter, the Corpus Christi Republican who carried the recent congressional redistricting bill and chaired the House committee that oversaw the 2021 maps, has said the redistricting “issue is not over at all.”

In an interview published yesterday with Texas Scorecard, Hunter acknowledged that conservative activists have called for redrawing the state House and state Senate lines.

“Whether we take redistricting up or not, that’s out of my hands,” Hunter said, a nod to Gov. Greg Abbott. However, he noted that the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which centers on the Voting Rights Act, “could spark the discussion.”

While Hunter didn’t give his personal opinion on whether to go ahead with another redraw, Jacksboro state Rep. David Spiller, a member of the House Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting, issued the strongest call from an elected official yet for the Legislature to redistrict in 2027.

“Texas will take up redistricting again (Congressional, Texas Senate and Texas House),” Spiller wrote in a social media post where he shared a clip of the Hunter interview. “Get ready. It’s coming.”

But before 2027, Republicans might want to see how their new congressional map fares.

In the Rio Grande Valley, where partisan affiliation has become increasingly fluid for Hispanic voters who were once reliably blue, a leading state House candidate’s endorsement history is raising some eyebrows in the Democratic primary.

Retiring state Rep. Bobby Guerra, D-Mission, has endorsed McAllen City Commissioner Victory “Seby” Haddad to succeed him in battleground House District 41. 

During a candidate forum last week, fellow primary contender Julio Salinas accused Haddad of endorsing U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in 2020. Haddad rebuked the claim, saying Salinas was probably seeing campaign contributions to Cornyn made by his father, who has the same name.

“No one up here endorsed John Cornyn,” Haddad said.

However, in September 2020, the Cornyn campaign announced “Commissioner” Haddad as one of more than 100 South Texas leaders who endorsed the Republican senior senator in the lead-up to the general election. Multiple outlets reported it at the time, too (s/o to the Tribune’s Berenice Garcia).

After denying his Cornyn endorsement, Haddad praised him for driving millions to the Valley, particularly for health care.

“I have no problem giving credit where credit is due when legislators, congressmen or senators do the right thing or bring resources to the Valley, and I will happily criticize them on positions they have today or positions they take or if they’re taking positions today that harm our region,” Haddad said. “No problem to either criticize or support, but if you’re going to go to Austin and stand in a corner alone and yell at the other side, you’re going to accomplish nothing.”

Salinas, a former staffer to Democratic state Reps. Lulu Flores and Christina Morales, accused Haddad of being “another political chameleon” in a press release after the candidate forum.

Haddad’s situation is yet another example of the changing dynamics in South Texas and how voters in the Hispanic-dominated region tend to defy the norms of partisan politics. President Donald Trump carried the district with 50.3% in 2024 while then-Vice President Kamala Harris received 48.7%. Meanwhile, Guerra was reelected with 53.5% of the vote.

Haddad, whose city commission office is nonpartisan, also previously voted in several Republican primaries before switching to the Democratic primary for 2024. On the GOP side, attorney Sergio Sanchez has previously voted in the Democratic primary and bears the same name as a prominent South Texas KURV conservative radio host.

The March 3 primary, then, will shed light on whether HD-41 voters actually care about the letter listed beside a candidate’s name or their voting history.

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New polling from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shines some light on the state of the GOP primaries in some open congressional races in and around Harris County.

The Hobby School surveyed the redrawn TX-09 and TX-38, as well as a couple state House races. No one hit 50% in the four polls, suggesting some runoffs could be in store for Houston-area voters. The surveys were conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 10, with margins of error ranging from plus-or-minus 4 to 5.7 percentage points.

Breaking this evening, President Donald Trump endorsed Alex Mealer and Jon Bonck in their respective races, which will likely tip the scales further in their favor.

TX-09

Mealer, the 2022 Harris County judge nominee, leads Deer Park state Rep. Briscoe Cain 34%-26%. That’s tough news for Cain, who gave up reelection to his Texas House seat to try to flip the district that’s newly favorable for the GOP after last summer’s redraw.

Mealer and her supporters, namely the Veterans Duty Fund, Winning for Women Action Fund and Win it Back PAC, have overshadowed Cain and the rest of the competition on the airwaves, far outspending the Deer Park Republican.

Last week, Cain launched his first ad on streaming platforms touting his endorsement from Gov. Greg Abbott. Mealer has her own tranche of endorsements, including Club for Growth PAC and members of congressional leadership.

With early voting beginning tomorrow and 19% still undecided, per UH, touting the Abbott endorsement might be Cain’s best bet to bridge the gap or at least ensure the race goes to a runoff. But now he’ll also be contending with Trump’s hot-off-the-presses endorsement of Mealer.

TX-38

As the financial and endorsement game suggests, Bonck leads the field by 12 points in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. However, a whopping 50% are still undecided — at least before Trump weighed in.

Bonck, a mortgage banker, leads with 22% to Shelly deZevallos’ 10%. Right behind her for the second runoff spot is Tomball ISD Trustee Michael Pratt with 8%. No one else tops 3%.

DeZevallos raised more than double Pratt’s haul in the final quarter of 2025. But Pratt presumably benefits from his time on the Tomball ISD board since his election in 2010.

HD-126

Former Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart leads the race to succeed state Rep. Sam Harless, R-Spring, but Kelly Peterson isn’t out of it.

Stanart leads Peterson 31%-24%, with Polly Looper taking 9% and 36% still undecided.

Stanart has the endorsements of Abbott, former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and several of the more conservative state House members. Peterson, who’s Harless’ district director, has her boss’ support and has relied on his financial help to fund her campaign.

HD-138

The only non-open race polled in this batch was that of state Rep. Lacey Hull, R-Houston, who stood just shy of 50%, per UH.

But Hull could be positioned to avoid a runoff, given that more than one quarter of respondents were undecided. Hull polled at 49%, with challengers Josh Flynn and Natalie Blasingame at 13% and 12%, respectively.

Events tomorrow for your campaign radar:

Senate

Governor

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“Aaron Reitz, Paxton’s endorsed successor, vows to “destroy the left” if elected Texas attorney general,” by Eleanor Klibanoff of The Texas Tribune

“Attorney General Paxton launches investigations into three Texas school districts over students protesting ICE,” by Alejandra Martinez of The Texas Tribune

“As early voting begins, these are the most competitive races in North Texas,” by Eleanor Dearman of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram

“The big-money fight driving key state House primaries, in four charts,” by Bayliss Wagner of the San Antonio Express-News

“Legendary actor and honorary Texas Ranger Robert Duvall dies at 95,” by Octavia Johnson of the Houston Chronicle

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